Description

This analysis provides a forecast of VET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-09-14 0.016669 0.018864 0.021242 0.024010 0.027143 0.030581 0.034642
2025-09-21 0.012894 0.015844 0.019312 0.023691 0.029079 0.035497 0.043734
2025-09-28 0.010585 0.013758 0.017702 0.022967 0.029824 0.038466 0.050212
2025-10-05 0.009596 0.013061 0.017570 0.023873 0.032475 0.043833 0.060017
2025-10-12 0.008724 0.012359 0.017278 0.024436 0.034610 0.048597 0.069366
2025-10-19 0.008044 0.011810 0.017091 0.025054 0.036794 0.053531 0.079318
2025-10-26 0.007262 0.011013 0.016446 0.024910 0.037810 0.056817 0.087108
2025-11-02 0.006642 0.010380 0.015958 0.024913 0.038991 0.060379 0.095549
2025-11-09 0.006001 0.009645 0.015235 0.024466 0.039399 0.062746 0.102279
2025-11-16 0.005612 0.009262 0.015011 0.024761 0.040971 0.067011 0.112351
2025-11-23 0.005166 0.008741 0.014515 0.024555 0.041685 0.069918 0.120391
2025-11-30 0.004922 0.008530 0.014499 0.025132 0.043730 0.075150 0.132764
2025-12-07 0.004442 0.007884 0.013712 0.024346 0.043408 0.076408 0.138460
2025-12-14 0.004093 0.007434 0.013223 0.024036 0.043888 0.079087 0.146923
2025-12-21 0.003715 0.006897 0.012535 0.023301 0.043524 0.080210 0.152594
2025-12-28 0.003618 0.006865 0.012744 0.024219 0.046269 0.087183 0.169807
2026-01-04 0.003479 0.006740 0.012769 0.024791 0.048398 0.093163 0.185618
2026-01-11 0.003357 0.006637 0.012824 0.025418 0.050676 0.099596 0.202857
2026-01-18 0.003149 0.006348 0.012500 0.025272 0.051411 0.103073 0.214429
2026-01-25 0.002976 0.006114 0.012263 0.025276 0.052440 0.107199 0.227665
2026-02-01 0.002767 0.005790 0.011820 0.024821 0.052484 0.109322 0.236854
2026-02-08 0.002653 0.005652 0.011744 0.025121 0.054125 0.114855 0.253813
2026-02-15 0.002497 0.005414 0.011441 0.024912 0.054659 0.118092 0.266005